Entries from December 2009 ↓

Shares fluctuated Wednesday as good news on manufacturing helped offset a decline in commodities prices.

The market got support from an economic indicator that signaled growth in the Midwest manufacturing industry for a third month. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 60 in December from 56.1 in November. The report showed that production and new orders increased and employment improved.

But the market’s gains were held back by a drop in energy and material stocks. A stronger dollar pulled on commodities prices, making the shares of companies that produce commodities less attractive.

Some investors have been buying the dollar on the belief that the economy is improving and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next year. That buying interest comes after a months-long slide in the dollar. Rock-bottom interest rates have encouraged investors this year to move out of cash and into riskier assets like stocks and commodities that have the potential to earn bigger returns.

While a rise in interest rates would be a sign that the economy is on the right track, it could hurt the stock market’s advance. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for foreign buyers and can hurt the profits of companies that do business overseas.

There were also plenty of reminders that corporate America is still hurting from the blows of the recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 18 points, or 0.17 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 3.39 points, or 0.3 percent, , while the Nasdaq dropped 6.74 points or 0.29 percent.

The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, rose 0.4 percent. Gold and other metals fell. Oil prices added 12 cents to $78.99 a barrel in New York trading.

Bond prices were steady ahead of an auction of seven-year notes, the last of the government’s issuances this week payday advance lenders. In total, the Treasury is auctioning off $118 billion of new debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, was unmoved at 3.80 percent. Interest rates on many consumer loans track the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

The pullback in stocks added to modest losses on Tuesday when the market ended a six-day winning streak as reports on home prices and consumer confidence failed to rally investors. While the reports showed improvement, they were largely in line with expectations and painted a picture of a slowly recovering economy.

After a 24.7 percent rise in the S.&P. this year, many investors have closed their books and are making few moves ahead of the start of 2010. With fewer traders in the market, price swings can be exaggerated.

In London, the FTSE 100 index held its last full session of the year, declining 0.5 percent, or 27 points, in afternoon trading. In Paris, the CAC 40 retreated from its 2009 high reached Tuesday, slipping 0.5 percent, or 18.53 points, while the DAX in Frankfurt slid 0.9 percent, or 54.12 points.

Earlier, Asian markets fluctuated, with Japan’s benchmark index down nearly 1 percent as shares of Japan Airlines plummeted amid fears the beleaguered carrier could end up in bankruptcy proceedings as part of a turnaround plan.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 stock average fell 91.62 points, or 0.9 percent, to 10,546.44, with shares of JAL tumbling 32 percent at one point to a new low. Its stock closed down 24 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed, off 2.82 points to 21,496.62

Wall Street Shares Wander as Year Nears a Close

TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Shares of Japan Airlines Corp tumbled 32 percent to a record low on Wednesday on growing investor worries the struggling carrier will be restructured in bankruptcy court as part of a state bailout.

Sources have told Reuters that a state-backed turnaround fund now weighing whether to support JAL is considering using a bankruptcy procedure similar to Chapter 11 in the United States as part of its restructuring plan.

“Today’s slide reflects mounting expectations that JAL is headed for a court-led reorganisation,” said Takahiko Kishi, an airline analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities.

Shares of JAL were down 32 percent at 60 yen as of 0047 GMT, a record low for the carrier. The benchmark Nikkei average was virtually flat.

Japan Airlines applied for a bailout in late October from the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp of Japan (ETIC), an organisation of turnaround specialists that can draw on state-guaranteed funding to offer financial aid to ailing firms.

The ETIC is expected to make a decision on whether to support JAL next month easy payday loans. The ETIC can draw on 1.6 trillion yen in state-guaranteed funding in the current fiscal year to March for loans and investments into struggling but viable firms.

The ETIC has told JAL’s creditors that it was considering a plan under which the airline would apply for court protection under the Corporate Rehabilitation Law, but it has not ruled out a private, out-of-court restructuring, sources have said.

Bankruptcy proceedings usually lead to a sharp cut in the payment of sales receivables and other creditor claims. There is a risk JAL would not be able to make payments for fuel, parts and other transactions needed to keep flying.

The ETIC plans to keep paying for such transactions if JAL files for bankruptcy, the Nikkei newspaper reported earlier on Wednesday, adding that airport usage fees and insurance policy premiums would also be guaranteed.

Shares of Japan Airlines Drop to Record Low

In the fall of 2000 all the buzz in the television business was about a new drama on CBS on Friday night.

Not “CSI” — that had no buzz at all. All it had was ratings. No, the buzz that fall was about the remake of “The Fugitive,” the classic innocent-man-on-the-run series from the 1960s.

The redo seemed a can’t-miss idea. But it lasted 23 episodes.

And then there was “Bionic Woman.” The NBC remake in 2007 of that sci-fi chestnut from the 1970s started out as the hottest new show of that fall season — and was gone after all of nine episodes.

There might be a lesson in there somewhere, but you would not know it from looking at the development lists at three networks this winter. Among the most prominent projects under consideration as new series next fall are these familiar names: “The Rockford Files” on NBC; “Charlie’s Angels” on ABC; and “Hawaii Five-O” on CBS.

All of the projects were announced with some fanfare by their networks, though the program creators and top network entertainment executives were reluctant to discuss any specifics about the new versions yet, saying they were still in the writing stages. But the network executives expressed genuine excitement about the possibilities for the projects.

It is easy to understand why. “It’s a good idea to try,” said Warren Littlefield, who was the top programmer at NBC and is now an independent producer. “Movies have proved you can do well with a presold concept.”

That is another way of saying it is only natural to turn to familiar titles because they attract attention. The question is whether the series that result will attract viewers.

The track record does more than suggest not: it screams not. In the history of network television, no remake of a previous hit series has ever become a hit itself on network television.

Plenty have been tried. In recent years there have been efforts to revive both “Beverly Hills 90210” and “Melrose Place” on the CW network. No one would claim either approaches the success of their predecessors, or even passable hit status.

NBC created a splash when it brought back “Knight Rider” — featuring a talking car — as a two-hour movie in 2008, but a series version later that year hit the skids quickly.

Earlier in the decade the highly successful “Law & Order” producer Dick Wolf tried a remake of the hoary classic “Dragnet” and barely made it through one season. (Who remembers that Ed O’Neill played Joe Friday and that one of the co-stars was Eva Longoria?)

How many people could pass a quiz on who replaced Rod Serling as host of UPN’s 2002 version of “The Twilight Zone”? (Forest Whitaker, actually.)

Digging through the files of series past, one could perhaps make an argument for some shows spawned from original hits. “Star Trek,” of course, gave birth to four separate series, but those were all spinoffs. They were not remakes of the original with the same characters.

All of those characters appeared instead in a series of theatrical movies, where television remakes have been far more successful: “Mission: Impossible,” “Get Smart,” “The Addams Family” and “The Brady Bunch,” to name a few.

“Battlestar Galactica,” a flop on ABC in 1978 (21 episodes), returned to a more favorable reception on the Syfy network in 2004, but that was on cable, not broadcast television.

“Dragnet” itself looks like a potential outlier cash till payday. It started as a radio series and made it to television in 1951. That run ended in 1959. But “Dragnet” came back in 1967 and was again a success. That would seem to qualify it as a remake hit.

But the second show was less remake than revival: It still starred Jack Webb playing Joe Friday with the same ominous theme music and intro about names being changed to protect the innocent.

The familiar titles on the current development slates are true remakes: “Charlie’s Angels” will star three new actresses as young women who are knockouts in looks and martial arts; “Hawaii Five-O” is still expected to be led by a no-nonsense type named McGarrett (and maybe even backed by a young aide named Danno); and “The Rockford Files” will inevitably feature a detective named Jim Rockford.

Perhaps more important for that show is that it will also feature a creator with one of the best recent résumés in television. “Rockford” is being written by David Shore, the chief creative force behind the hit drama “House.” Mr. Shore has said that “Rockford” was one of his favorite shows growing up and that he hopes to find a way to replicate its mixture of comedy and action.

But replicating a star on the level of James Garner, who played Rockford, may prove more challenging.

Mr. Littlefield said having a talent like Mr. Shore running the show would be a great advantage to a new “Rockford,” but he added, “I don’t think there are many gumshoe detectives around anymore, so the key will be how they reinvent the character.”

“Hawaii Five-O” is being created by the team of Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci, who wrote the scripts for the most recent “Star Trek” movie as well as the two “Transformers” films.

The issue of how much to remake and how much to reinvent has dogged previous efforts at bringing back familiar shows and characters. Fans and those who merely have heard of the old hits have tended to turn up for the initial episodes (and for two hours’ worth of a movie rendering), but have not stayed around once they got a whiff of what the new version was really like.

“The identity of a hit TV series is so intimately tied to the original stars, style and attitude that made it a hit in the first place that any deviation from that creates a real sense of aesthetic dissonance,” said Robert J. Thompson, a professor of television and popular culture at Syracuse University.

“This may be one case where an established brand is more a liability than an asset. In television, it’s a much safer approach to rip off an old idea than to try to remake one. It’s a perfectly plausible plan to develop a new TV show about three beautiful women fighting crime in fabulous clothes; maybe not such a good idea to call it ‘Charlie’s Angels.’ ”

Mr. Littlefield said that the woeful track record of previous remakes should not discourage network programmers from continuing to buy projects based on old hits. “But there has to be a series there,” he said. “It can’t be like a movie. You can’t trick them.”

Mr. Littlefield suggested a formula that could work: “At the risk of being oversimplistic: it also has to be good.”

Why Studios Keep Cranking Out TV Remakes, Despite the Flops

MILAN (Reuters) – Italian chocolate giant Ferrero said it is still examining its options on a possible bid for Britain's Cadbury PLC (CBRY.L), daily La Stampa reported on Sunday.

Cadbury has rejected a $16.2 billion offer from U.S. food group Kraft (KFT.N). U.S.-based Hershey Co (HSY.N) and the unlisted family-owned Ferrero have said they were contemplating bids.

Ferrero is "still evaluating the possibility of acquiring the British sweets group," the newspaper said, quoting from a company statement cash advance america. Without citing sources, it however added that Ferrero's interest had cooled.

Ferrero, known for its Nutella spread and Tic-Tac sweets, could not immediately be reached for comment.

In November, Ferrero said it was in the preliminary stages of evaluating options in respect of Cadbury.

(Writing by Nigel Tutt; editing by John Stonestreet)

Ferrero says still mulling Cadbury bid: report

Hot News: Economic Report: Bank of Japan saw deflation easing at Nov. meeting

NEW YORK, Dec. 24 (Xinhua) — Crude prices topped 78 U.S. dollars a barrel Thursday on upbeat economic reports.

The reports showing a drop in initial jobless claims and growth in durable goods orders in November boosted economic optimism.

Jobless claims, reached their lowest levels since last September, helped push energy futures higher Thursday before the long weekend.

Light, sweet crude futures for February delivery rose nearly 2 percent, or 1 easy fast payday loans.38 dollars to settle at 78.05 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent crude for February delivery rose 86 cents to 76.31 dollars on the ICE Futures exchange.

Crude prices rallied more than 3 percent on Wednesday due to a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventories last week.

Crude prices top $78 on upbeat reports

Hot News: How to Hire Reputable Contractors

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks rallied in a brief pre-holiday session on Thursday, closing at 2009 highs, after data showing a drop in initial jobless claims and growth in durable goods orders suggested an economic recovery was picking up steam.

Stocks racked up a fifth day of gains on light volume before the Christmas holiday. After finishing early for Christmas Eve on Thursday, markets will be closed on Friday.

Data showed initial jobless claims fell more than forecast last week to the lowest tally since September 2008, while a separate report showed durable goods orders, excluding transportation, surged 2.0 percent, beating expectations.

The reports were "more wind at the market's back," said

Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

Stocks that have performed well this year received an extra lift from year-end window dressing as portfolio managers sold laggards to buy shares that have rallied recently. Apple Inc (AAPL.O), which has gained 144.9 percent this year, closed at a record high — up 3.4 percent at $209.04. Earlier in the abbreviated session, which ended at 1 p.m., Apple also hit a fresh intraday high of $209.35.

"There's far more people who have gains on a lot of names this year, who are less likely to want to sell," James said.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 53.66 points, or 0.51 percent, to end at 10,520.10. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) gained 5.89 points, or 0.53 percent, to finish at 1,126.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) rose 16.05 points, or 0.71 percent, to close at 2,285.69.

NASDAQ UP 45 PERCENT FOR 2009

For the week, the Dow gained 1.9 percent, the S&P 500 rose 2.2 percent, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.4 percent, capping its longest winning streak since October.

With the Dow setting a 14-month closing high on Thursday,

the blue-chip average is up 19 fast payday loan no faxing.9 percent for 2009.

The S&P 500, which also finished Thursday's abbreviated session at a 14-month high, is up 24.7 percent for the year.

The Nasdaq — ending at a 15-month closing high on Thursday — is up an eye-catching 45 percent for 2009.

In Thursday's session, Apple's stock also got a boost as excitement intensified over the expected release of its tablet computer.

Healthcare was the lone S&P 500 sector to end slightly lower after the U.S. Senate approved an overhaul measure Thursday morning.

Health insurer Cigna Corp (CI.N) slipped 0.4 percent to $36.33, and the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Payor Index (.HMO) declined 0.3 percent.

Health insurers and related stocks have rallied recently as legislation appeared less ominous for the sector than originally feared. But the Senate health bill must be reconciled with the measure approved recently by the U.S. House of Representatives, adding to uncertainty.

The U.S. dollar (.DXY) dipped 0.08 percent against a basket of major currencies, which helped push commodity prices higher. That, in turn, lifted shares of natural resource companies. Shares of steelmaker Nucor Corp (NUE.N) gained 2.2 percent to $47.10.

Volume was light on the New York Stock Exchange, with only 319.3 million shares changing hands, sharply below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion. On the Nasdaq, about 613.8 million shares traded, also well below last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of 3 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, eight stocks rose for nearly every five that fell.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Data lifts stocks to 2009 highs on Christmas Eve

Hot News: Madoff moved to prison medical facility

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Many mutual-fund investors suffered heavy losses in 2008, but managers of some of the largest stock funds — including ones that fell roughly 40% in 2008 — gathered hundreds of millions of dollars in fees during that time.

Five stock funds — three from American Funds and two from Fidelity Investments — that individually lost more than 37% in 2008 each collected management fees of more than $300 million in their latest fiscal years.

The results, calculated by investment researcher Morningstar Inc., illustrate just how profitable the mutual-fund industry is for large fund managers in particular. At a time when their funds were suffering enormous full-year losses, they were still enjoying large paydays because mutual funds typically make money based on total assets rather than performance.

“[The results] argue that aligning end performance for fund shareholders with fees is important,” said Karen Dolan, director of fund analysis at Morningstar, who conducted the study. “We’ve long been advocates of performance-based fees.”

The five funds were: American Funds Growth Fund of America , which was down 39.1% in 2008, but gathered management fees of $351.2 million in the 12 months through August; American Funds Capital World Growth & Income Fund , which was down 38.4% in 2008 and collected $375 million in management fees for the year through November 2008; American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund , which was down 40.5% last year and had management fees of $381.6 million in the year through March; Fidelity Contrafund , down 37.2% in 2008 with management fees of $373.2 million in the fiscal year ended December 2008, and Fidelity Diversified International Fund , down 45.2% last year, pocketing management fees of $348.1 million in the 12 months through October 2008.

The Fidelity funds did give back some management fees based on performance, though Dolan said that amounted to roughly $30 million for each fund.

Fidelity and American Funds made up more than half the list of 20 biggest management fee gatherers. The four Fidelity funds on the list generated management fees of just over $1 billion, while management fees at the eight American Funds in the top 20 totaled nearly $2 billion.

One other fund saw management fees of more than $300 million: bond powerhouse Pimco Total Return Fund , the world’s biggest mutual fund which now has $200 billion in fixed-income assets, generated $330 million of management fees and total fees of more than $1 billion in its most recent fiscal year, which ended in March. That fund finished 2008 in the black, up 4.8%.

Only one other fund, Growth Fund of America, had total fees of more than $1 billion. Total fees for mutual funds include payments to third parties for legal work, customer service and record-keeping Payday advance.

But it’s not clear if the entire management fee goes directly to the fund company. That’s because a lack of transparency in the area of fund fees makes it almost impossible to tell how much of the management fee is used, for instance, to pay commission to brokerage firms such as Charles Schwab Corp. . Part of the total bill includes charges known as 12b-1 fees, which can cover broker commissions, but it’s possible that management fees are also used.

“The accounting is very fuzzy because there’s no clear standard for mutual funds to show where the money goes,” Dolan said.

Disconnect on costs

Aside from where the money goes, there’s also the issue of just how much money the fund companies are bringing in.

“The disconnect between the fees charged as a percentage and the absolute dollar amount the funds bring in becomes more and more astounding as a fund grows,” said Dolan.

American Funds, for instance, is actually among the cheaper active managers on the market. But it still brings in huge amounts of cash because its funds are so large: for instance, Growth Fund of America’s expense ratio is 0.75%, well below the roughly 1.1% average for a U.S. stock fund. But it has roughly $150 billion in assets, and the amount of money its fees raised suggest it could be cheaper still, Dolan said.

“Given the magnitude of dollars charged, we think it’s fair to ask why more of those economies aren’t being passed along to shareholders,” Dolan noted in her study.

Dolan added, however, that calling for performance-based fees doesn’t mean creating a hedge-fund-like system, where fees are decided each year and where managers can take 20% or more of returns for themselves.

“We don’t want fees driven by one really good year or one really bad year — you don’t want funds to lay off their research analysts after a bad year,” said Dolan.

Instead, she said, it would be better to see performance-based fees judged on longer time periods of three, five or even seven years.

“There is value in a longer-term outlook,” added Dolan.

Growth Fund of America has five- and 10-year annualized returns of 3% and 2.7%, respectively — in both cases putting it ahead of its category average and benchmark index, according to Morningstar.

Dolan also suggested that the dollar amount brought in by fees be expressed in terms of total returns delivered by a fund. For example, if a fund’s returns in a year amounted to about $600 million, and it realized $300 million in management fees, investors would have a clear picture of how much fees affected returns.

FundWatch: Fund giants enjoy big paydays despite losses

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Tokyo stock market rose to its highest close in three months on Tuesday as exporters were spurred by the dollar's rally against the yen and technology shares gained off the back of an Intel upgrade.

Asian shares rose across the board as technology stocks tracked a rally in their peers on Wall Street that took the Nasdaq to a 15-month high.

European stock markets were set to open slightly higher, according to financial spreadbetters, while U.S. equity stock futures were up 0.3 percent.

The dollar touched 91.49 yen, its highest level since late October, helped by the unwinding of short positions ahead of the year end. The dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies (.DXY) after reaching multi-week highs on Monday.

Recent robust U.S. economic data is supporting the dollar, raising expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than earlier thought.

"It does all get back to when the Fed may or may not be tightening policy and the market is heading toward thinking they will get to tightening in Q3 next year," said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at RBS in Sydney.

Gold picked up, trading at $1,094.20 an ounce after hitting a six-and-a-half week low at $1,090.65 on Monday. It has been depressed by the dollar's rebound and is nearly 11 percent below record highs hit earlier this month.

AUSSIE DOLLAR SKIDS

Tokyo's Nikkei average (.N225) rose 1.9 percent to a three-month closing high. Shares of high-tech exporters gained after the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit the 15-month high, spurred by a brokerage upgrade of Intel Corp (INTC.O) that cited solid "end-market" conditions.

Tokyo Electron Ltd (8035.T), the world's No.2 semiconductor equipment maker, climbed 3.8 percent and chip-tester maker Advantest Corp (6857.T) firmed 4.5 percent. Sony Corp (6758.T) gained 2.7 percent payday loans.

Toshiba Corp (6502.T) climbed 4.7 percent, while DRAM chipmaker Elpida (6665.T) gained 4.6 percent.

High-tech shares had also advanced on Monday following solid quarterly results from Oracle (ORCL.O) and BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIMM.O).

Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corp (2303.TW), the world's No. 2 contract chip maker, jumped 2.5 percent.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks traded outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose nearly 1 percent, backed by the technology advances. The index has surged 60 percent this year.

Markets will be watching U.S. home sales data and a final reading of Q3 U.S. GDP due later on Tuesday for further indications about the health of the world's biggest economy.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday he expected the U.S. economy to grow by 3 to 3.5 percent over the next 18 months.

U.S. Treasury yields hit a four-month high as markets speculate that a faster U.S. economic recovery means the U.S. will raise rates before the euro zone.

Rising U.S. yields are eating into the Australian dollar's interest rate advantage, pushing it to an 11-week low at $0.8764.

Expectations for more M&A activity in the new year boosted Australian shares (.AXJO), which rose 1.5 percent.

The dollar's strength has also put pressure on oil, but it held steady on Tuesday at $73.84 a barrel ahead of an OPEC meeting in Angola, where the cartel is expected to leave output limits unchanged.

"Currency is the most important factor at the moment to move the crude market," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo.

(Additional reporting by Charlotte Cooper in Tokyo and Judy Hua in Singapore; Editing by Neil Fullick)

Tokyo hits 3-month high as tech shares rally

DUBLIN — The Irish airline Ryanair said Friday that it had pulled out of talks to buy 200 aircraft from Boeing, and would now trim its investment plans starting in 2011 to cut costs and free up more cash for dividends.

Ryanair shares were up 5.4 percent in morning trading in Dublin, the top gainer among leading European stocks.

Michael O’Leary, the chief executive, said he had no plan to reopen talks with Boeing or any other aircraft manufacturer, and would focus on maintaining Ryanair’s strong traffic and new route growth into 2010.

The low-cost carrier, which is one of Europe’s biggest airlines, said it aimed to reduce capacity growth from 2011 and return surplus cash to shareholders from 2012-2015.

“It is appropriate to return these surplus funds to shareholders if we cannot use them to purchase aircraft on terms which enable us to meet our demanding return on cpital targets,” Mr instant payday loans. O’Leary said.

Analysts said Ryanair would not be able to meet its long-term earnings target if growth slowed or ended after 2012, forcing it to eventually increase average fares. “Given the already low cost base, further significant unit cost savings will be difficult to deliver,” Arbuthnot said in a note.

Ryanair, which has thrived on consumers trading down in the recession, said its plan for receiving 112 Boeing aircraft from 2010-12 was unaffected, and it would continue to work with Boeing on the 48 deliveries scheduled for 2010.

The company had previously said a deal for 200 Boeing 737-800 aircraft for 2013-16 delivery was in doubt because the U.S. planemaker wanted to change conditions.

Reuters

Ryanair Drops Order for 200 Boeing Planes

Hot News: Shares End Mixed as Fed Holds Rates Steady

The U.S. housing market has been on government life support for much of 2009. Thanks to the feds' bounty of tax credits, purchases of mortgage securities, interest-rate cuts, and home loan programs, new and existing home sales are up. The median home price rose, to $177,900. What happens in 2010 depends on whether the market can stand on its own.

The big test comes this spring. The Federal Reserve says it will stop buying mortgage-backed securities by the end of March, a program that has helped make home loans more affordable and spurred sales. The market may also suffer a setback if the central bank hikes interest rates, as some economists predict. With foreclosures expected to jump, Moody's (NYSE:MCO - News) Economy.com estimates home values will fall 7.8% in 2010.

The U.S. also plans to phase out the popular home buyer's tax credit by April. Right now first-time buyers get $8,000 and repeat buyers $6,500. As first-time buyers rushed to capitalize on the credit before its original yearend expiration date, purchases of existing homes surged; in October they were up 23.5% over the previous year to reach their highest levels since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors. Colleen and Jim Baldrica took advantage of the government gift when they purchased a three-bedroom rambler on a lake in the Minneapolis suburb of Stillwater for $245,000 this year. The Baldricas, who are planning to use their tax savings to pay for new hardwood floors, hope the credit will make it easier for others to buy the home they've lived in for 21 years.

With the government stepping back, homeowners will have to put their faith in the economy. Whether the rebound in real estate has staying power will depend on mortgage rates remaining low and the unemployment picture improving, says Celia Chen, senior director of Moody's Economy poor credit personal loans.com: "If everything works according to script, job growth will have kicked in, and we'll be on the way to economic recovery by the middle of next year."

That doesn't mean home values are likely to surge. "Keep in mind, when you reach the end of the bust you tend to have flat prices for years," says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv (NasdaqGS:FISV - News), a research firm in Brookfield, Wis. The median home price won't turn until 2011, when it is expected to rise only 3.4%, according to estimates from Moody's.

The aggregate numbers, though, don't tell the full story about real estate, which remains highly localized. The former bubble markets, including Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada, may remain in the doldrums long past the rest of the country. In Phoenix, some troubled borrowers got temporary modifications of their loans through a Treasury program designed to prevent foreclosure. But they may not qualify for permanent workouts if they don't have the paperwork to prove their income or show they occupy the home. Prices in the city could drop another 23% through 2010, according to Moody's Economy.com.

On the flip side, Texas, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, whose local economies are fueled by the energy business, will bottom out before other places. Home prices in North Dakota are expected to remain flat in 2010 while prices continue to fall in the rest of the country, estimates Moody's Economy.com. What follows is a look at four major cities that represent various factors affecting U.S. home prices in both directions.

Home Prices Without Fed Support