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WASHINGTON (AFP) – A key index tracking the US economy barely rose in February, indicating that economic growth after a brutal recession may have peaked, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The business research firm said its forward-looking leading economic index (LEI) gained just 0.1 percent following a rise of 0.3 percent in January and 1.2 percent in December.

The rise, the smallest in 11 months, was held down by the manufacturing and labor market components, underscoring the nearly double-digit unemployment crisis threatening growth.

The 0.1 percent increase, however, matched the consensus forecast of analysts who had expected the pace of recovery since the middle of last year to ease as government stimulus efforts to jolt the economy from recession fade.

"The LEI for the US has risen rapidly for almost a year now and it has reached its highest level," said economist Ataman Ozyildirim at The Conference Board, adding that the sharp pickup appeared to be stabilizing.

"As the economy moves from recovery into early phases of an expansion, the leading economic index points to moderately improving economic conditions in the near term," Ozyildirim said.

Analysts said the leading indicators were signaling slower growth as the boost from an inventory swing and the fiscal stimulus faded payday loans.

"The moderation is consistent with our view that the recovery is maturing and that the economy is downshifting to a slower rate of growth," said Michael Bratus, an associate economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Although some of the decline in manufacturing may have been related to snowstorms that wreaked havoc in February, "the underlying trend was likely still slow."

"In coming months, we will need at least a modest uptick in the labor market indicators to ensure that the recovery is on track to becoming a broad-based, self-sustaining expansion in 2011," Bratus said.

The Conference Board?s index of coincident indicators, which tracks current economic activity, also rose 0.1 percent in February after being flat a month earlier and rising 0.1 percent in December.

The index gauges the state of components including payrolls, incomes, sales and production.

US key indicators point to slower economic growth

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Bank stocks led the financial sector lower Monday morning, ahead of details contained in a Democratic bank-reform bill to put before a key Senate panel.

The Keefe Bruyette & Woods Bank ETF shed 0.4%, which helped drive the broader exchange-traded fund Financial Select Sector SPDR down more than 0.5%. Shares of KeyCorp and Citigroup led all decliners.

On the upside, American International Group Inc. and Legg Mason topped the gainers column payday advance loans.

After months of efforts to craft bipartisan legislation, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn., plans to introduce a revised version of sweeping bank reform legislation on Monday, most likely without the support of the panel’s Republican members.

Financial Stocks: U.S. financial stocks slip in early trading

BERLIN — As protesters upset with sharp cuts in Greece’s budget clashed with police in Athens on Friday, talks here between Greek and German leaders ended with Germany making no public offers of financial support.

In an appearance following their meeting, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, praised Greece’s latest austerity measures as an “inordinately important step,” and the Greek prime minister, George A. Papandreou, defended the package — which has provoked outrage at home — as critical to stabilizing his country’s finances.

“We had to take difficult decisions, but these decisions were necessary if we are to lead our country out of the crisis,” he said. He added that he had not asked Germany for financial support.

In the Greek capital, meanwhile, strikes hit schools, hospitals and public transportation and police used tear gas on the rioters in Athens as Parliament adopted its latest austerity package. Seven police officers were injured in the protests, among the most violent since Greece’s financial crisis hit, and at least five demonstrators were arrested.

The oversubscribed sale of nearly $7 billion in bonds on Thursday gave the Greek government much-needed breathing room in its scramble for new loans, and also took pressure off Mrs. Merkel to make a firm commitment to help Greece out of its fiscal predicament.

The two countries have been locked in an increasingly bitter war of words fought through the news media and lower-ranking politicians over Greece’s debt problems and the expectation that taxpayers from Germany, Europe’s largest economy, would bail them out. The dispute has exposed a gap between the declarations of solidarity in Europe and the nationalist sentiments that still rule public opinion.

While the Greek government is struggling to convince markets to help it bridge its financing gap, there is plenty at stake for Germany as well. With $43.6 billion in loans, German banks have the third-highest exposure to Greece. Deutsche Bank’s chief executive, Josef Ackermann, even flew to Athens last week to meet with Mr. Papandreou and other senior officials, sparking rumors a deal with the Germans was imminent.

A bailout of Greece would be far less expensive than the potential fallout from a chain reaction a debt crises leading to larger countries with budget woes, like Spain and Italy. But Mrs. Merkel, known at home for her patience and often described by friends and foes alike as a consummate political poker player, has stuck to platitudes, generalities and lectures that the Greeks must do their “own homework.”

“So far she’s kept her cards hidden, which I think is smart,” said Michael Stürmer, the chief correspondent for the German newspaper Die Welt. “In principle, her tactic is to hold herself in reserve, hold Germany in reserve.”

Even before Mr. Papandreou arrived in Berlin Friday, the German economy minister, Rainer Brüderle, had a stark message for him.

“The German government does not intend to give one cent,” Mr. Brüderle told reporters here in the capital.

An interview with Mr. Papandreou published Friday in the German daily the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung ahead of his visit, aimed to calm public sentiment in Germany.

“We have not asked the German taxpayers to rescue us, to pay for our retirements and vacations,” Mr. Papandreou said. “We are not asking for money. What we need is the support of the E.U. and our European partners so that we can receive credit from the market at better terms inferred heaters.” Relations between the two countries have taken a sour turn in recent weeks as German news media outlets accused the Greeks of corruption, tax evasion and falsifying their budget numbers to join the euro zone. Greek politicians in turn have asked for reparations for damage inflicted by Nazi occupiers during World War II.

Germany has the most fiscal flexibility among European Union members to help Greece, but public opposition to any assistance has been vehement. The debate has crystallized broader German misgivings about the European project into a public outcry.

“It’s like a mosaic and the Greece crisis is the last stone,” said Wolfgang Nowak, a former senior adviser to Mrs. Merkel’s predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, and head of Deutsche Bank’s International Forum. “More and more there is the feeling that French farmers, Polish farmers, Spanish infrastructure, that Europe is not a community but something held together by a German pay check.”

While protesters have not taken to the streets of Berlin in large numbers the way they have in Athens, Mrs. Merkel faces rising dissatisfaction at home. A new poll Friday found nearly three-quarters of Germans critical of her government’s performance since she was reelected last September.

With a crucial election in Germany’s largest state, North Rhine-Westphalia, barely two months away, Mrs. Merkel would be taking an enormous political risk by pledging support to Greece, which is seen as having a bloated public sector and excessively generous benefits, even by European standards.

“There would be no understanding in the population or in her own party if Germany would go it alone with help for Greece,” said Jürgen Falter, a political science professor at the University of Mainz.

The German press has been filled with stories detailing the tens of billions of dollars worth of European Union funds Greece has received in recent years. At the same time, stories of tax-dodging doctors and marinas filled with yachts have become staples of news reports here.

One of the most-cited statistics, and for Germans most infuriating, comes from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, showing that the median Greek retiree takes home 95.7 of his or her last salary, while the German pensioner gets only 43 percent. That is viewed as evidence that the Germans have taken painful cuts in their benefits to keep industry competitive and budget deficits under control, while the Greeks have not.

“We Europeans, despite our long history of cooperation, often indulge in the habit of throwing stones at each other, forgetting that we live in a glass house,” said Loukas Tsoukalis, president of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, an Athens research group. The good news, according to Mr. Tsoukalis, was that a large majority of Greeks recognized that the problem was theirs to solve.

“It’s really something new that you have a government that announces pretty unpleasant measures that will have a real effect on people’s standard of living, and you have 75 percent of Greeks, depending on the opinion poll, who say they agree with the measures,” said Mr. Tsoukalis.

Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.

Germany Makes No Promise of Financial Support to Greece

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ALAMEDA, Calif. – Celera Corp., a laboratory testing products and disease management services company, reported a fourth-quarter profit on lower costs and a tax benefit.

The company said it earned $7.8 million, or 9 cents per share, compared with a loss of $6.1 million, or 8 cents per share, during the same period a year prior. Revenue fell 15 percent to $40 million from $47.3 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a loss of 3 cents per share on revenue of $39.6 million.

Celera was part of Applera Corp. until July 2008, but was separated from Applera after that company’s other component, Applied Biosystems, was sold to Invitrogen Corp. Those two companies combined into Life Technologies Corp.

Lab services revenue fell 25 percent to $22 million, while products revenue increased 1 percent to $11.3 million. Corporate revenue fell 3 percent to $6.7 million.

Meanwhile, selling and general expenses fell 17 percent to $22.4 million. The company had a tax benefit of $9 payday loans guaranteed no fax.1 million.

For the full year, the company lost $32.7 million, or 40 cents per share, compared with a loss of $124.6 million, or $1.56 per share, in 2008. Revenue fell to $167.1 million from $175.2 million.

Looking ahead, the company expects a loss between 11 cents and 13 cents per share on revenue between $30 million and $32million in the first quarter. It expects a loss between 15 cents and 21 cents per share on revenue between $145 million and $155 million in 2010.

Analysts expect a loss of 1 cent per share on revenue of $40.5 million in the first quarter and profit of 4 cents per share on revenue of $173.5 million in 2010.

Shares of Celera rose 1 cent to $6.15 in after-hours trading after falling 1 cent to close at $6.14 during the regular trading session.

Celera sees 4Q profit on tax benefit, lower costs

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In the financial turmoil of the past decade, mutual fund investing has gotten decidedly more complicated. After all, over the course of just 10 years, investors have looked on as two bear markets ravished the economy, as a pair of bull markets jolted stocks back to life, and as the Internet and housing bubbles inflated to their breaking points and then burst.

For investors, the search for the perfect mutual fund has always been something of a holy grail quest. But in the midst of the past decade's abrupt market cycles, investors have approached their fund-hunting efforts with newfound intensity. With that in mind, U.S. News has created a unique rankings system that is designed for long-term investors looking for broad access to information about funds. In the process, U.S. News has assigned scores to upwards of 4,500 distinct mutual funds.

[Use the U.S. News Mutual Fund Score and the rankings of trusted fund analysts to find the best mutual funds for you.]

Overall, the scores–which are based on data from Morningstar, Zacks, Lipper, TheStreet.com, and Standard & Poor's–take into account short- and long-term performance, risk, expenses, and future prospects.

[See our methodology.]

So what do the best mutual funds look like? To explore this, U.S. News has analyzed its top-ranked fund from each of the following 11 Morningstar categories: large growth, large value, large blend ("blend" funds have both growth and value characteristics), foreign large blend, diversified emerging markets, health, short-term bond, intermediate-term bond, intermediate government bond, world bond, and moderate allocation. Overall, the 11 category-topping funds have quite a bit in common. Here are some traits that they share:

[Slide Show: 11 category-topping funds]

High-conviction portfolios. Pat English, a comanager of FMI Large Cap (FMIHX), which is the top-scoring large-blend fund in the U.S. News rankings, likes to say that only his team's best ideas will make it into the fund's portfolio. And he means it: FMI Large Cap generally owns just 25 to 30 stocks at a time. "We're not big believers in sheer numbers of names," says English.

Neither is Don Yacktman, a comanager of the Yacktman Fund (YACKX), which tops the large-value category. At the end of 2009, the fund owned fewer than 50 securities. "Beyond a certain point," Yacktman says, "the more diversification, the more likely one will get mediocre returns."

Meanwhile, for its part, Fidelity Select Medical Equipment and Systems (FSMEX), the best-ranked health fund, finished 2009 with just under 60 stock holdings.

Broadly speaking, running a heavily concentrated fund is a risky proposition. If even one bet goes sour, the fund is certain to feel the blow. At the same time, though, concentrated portfolios allow managers to invest only in companies they know intimately. "Concentrated portfolios can be more volatile but aren't necessarily so," says Adam Bold, the founder of the Mutual Fund Store, an investment management firm with more than 65 U.S. locations.

Another measure of portfolio conviction is a fund's turnover ratio, which quantifies how frequently management trades. Funds with low ratios have buy-and-hold mentalities and tend to have high degrees of confidence in their picks. Overall, the 11 funds have turnover ratios that are an average of 78.7 percent lower than their category averages.

Low costs. It's one of the perennial mutual fund debates: Should investors focus primarily on costs or on returns? In a vindication of cost-based fund picking, the 11 mutual funds examined by U.S. News have expense ratios (a measure of annual fees) that are, on average, 0.32 percent less than their category averages.

[See Should You Deep-Six Your Mutual Fund?]

"Costs play a big role in fund returns. You tend not to see it if you look too close up. In other words, if you look at a single year, that advantage of, say, 50 basis points or whatever isn't that big, especially in years like '08 or '09 when you've got huge negative or positive returns," says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar's director of mutual fund research. "But over time, it adds up to quite a significant difference."

Overall, this phenomenon is somewhat circular in nature. "Good performance leads to more assets, and more assets generally drive down expenses," says Kinnel.

Still, costs are one of the most contentious issues in the fund industry. "There are some things in life that are worth paying more for. There's a reason that a Mercedes-Benz costs more than a Kia," says Bold. "To me, it doesn't matter how much you pay the mutual fund company. What counts is how much they pay you cash till payday advance."

Ultimately, though, this tension between costs and returns may be more imagined than it is real: The funds that top the U.S. News rankings provide superior returns, and they do so at low costs.

Talented and consistent management. Six of the 11 category leaders have at least one manager who has been on board since the fund's inception. Overall, this continuity of management seems to boost a fund's ability to consistently apply strategies that will pay off in the long term.

English, who has been a comanager of FMI Large Cap since it launched in 2001, says low manager turnover helps funds develop coherent cultures. "The main thing is the culture," he says. "You need continuity because it's hard to spread that culture if you have a lot of change."

For his part, Bold says that picking a good management team is one of the most important decisions an investor can make. "The name of the fund doesn't matter," he says. "What counts are the people who are every day making the buy, sell, and hold decisions."

Among the top-performing funds in the U.S. News rankings, the biggest question mark in the management arena pertains to TCW Total Return (TGLMX), the best-scoring fund in the intermediate-term bond category.

Late last year, TCW fired Jeffrey Gundlach, who had served as the company's chief investment officer and was a celebrated comanager of the flagship Total Return fund. In the aftermath of the firing, Philip Barach, the other Total Return manager, also left TCW, as did dozens of other employees.

[For more on Gundlach's ouster, see The Decade's 10 Worst Fund Disasters.]

With the fund's two managers out the door, TCW quickly turned control of Total Return over to Tad Rivelle of Metropolitan West Asset Management. Rivelle brings significant experience to the job, but it remains to be seen how the shake-up will affect the fund's long-term performance.

Another management theme is that all 11 category leaders have active managers. "Actively managed funds are going to have a wider dispersal of performance," says Kinnel. "Those are the ones that are always going to be at the top and bottom of the rankings." At its most basic level, this cuts to the core of the active-passive debate. A good index fund, Kinnel says, will consistently earn investors market performance, but that's as far as it will go–its mandate isn't to beat the market.

Downside protection. After two bear markets in the course of a single decade, investors have learned the hard way that high-quality funds not only will earn more than the competition during strong markets but will also lose less during downturns.

The 11 top performers' returns beat their category averages by an average of 7.4 percent in 2008, primarily thanks to some well-timed defensive positions. Some residual indicators of these funds' defensive stakes still linger, largely in their cash holdings. As recently as the end of last month, for example, Sextant International (SSIFX), the top-ranked foreign large blend fund, had roughly 40 percent of its portfolio stashed away in cash.

Many of the other top-ranked funds also have large cash stakes. "When we feel that we've filled up on the really good ideas … we'd just as soon sit on some cash. If the opportunities are there, we'll buy things. It's just a matter of if they aren't attractive enough, we'd rather just sit on some [cash]," says Yacktman, whose fund had upwards of 11 percent of its portfolio in cash at the end of last year.

The reason large cash positions helped during the downturn is that they shielded funds from losses in the stock and bond markets. "A lot of the funds with good cash stakes naturally lost less in 2008," says Kinnel. "I don't think there's anything inherently good or bad about running with a lot of cash. I think it's just what works for the manager."

Another way the 11 funds protect their investors during bear markets is through careful stock picking. "We spend a great deal of time protecting the downside by making sure we don't overpay for anything on the front end," says English.

Meanwhile, some of the top-ranked funds hold up decently during recessions because of the very nature of their mandates. Health funds, for example, are commonly considered to be among the most defensive of investments, and they tend to outperform their competitors during weak markets. In 2008, Fidelity Select Medical Equipment & Systems lost 23.4 percent. By comparison, the S&P 500 was down by 38.5 percent that year.

The Best Mutual Funds for 2010

LONDON – The British subsidiary of Reader’s Digest filed for administration, a form of bankruptcy protection, in a move intended to help its parent company complete restructuring under bankruptcy protection in the U.S.

The parent, the Reader’s Digest Association Inc., said the action to isolate the British unit would allow it “to emerge from Chapter 11 promptly.”

The British subsidiary’s filing follows its failure to gain regulatory approval for a plan for funding a pension deficit, the company said Wednesday. Without approval for its plan to deal with the British pension issue, the company said the U.K. unit was unable to meet its debts and sustain its operations, the company said.

Reader’s Digest had hoped to emerge from Chapter 11 protection — under which a company in financial trouble is allowed to shed debts and restructure — by the end of the January but was delayed by the pension problem in Britain.

The pension proposal had been accepted by the company, pension trustees and the U saving account pay day loan.K. Pension Protection Fund, but was rejected by the U.K. Pensions Regulator.

“The agreement, which contemplated a lump sum payment by parent company RDA plus an equity stake in RDA UK, was authorized by the U.S. bankruptcy judge overseeing RDA’s U.S. Chapter 11 proceedings, and would have relieved RDA UK of significant financial obligations associated with its underfunded UK pension plan,” the company said in a statement from its headquarters in Pleasantville, N.Y.

“Absent an agreement, RDA UK is financially unable to meet those obligations and sustain its operations.”

The British pension issue does not affect any other part of the company, Reader’s Digest said.

A U.S. judge has already approved the company’s Chapter 11 plan, which cuts its debt load to $555 million from $2.2 billion.

Reader’s Digest UK unit files for administration

LONDON – European stock markets won some respite Monday ahead of a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, where the Greek debt crisis will likely top the agenda. However, public holidays in many Asian countries as well as the U.S. have reined in some of the volatility that gripped markets over the last couple of weeks.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 34.48 points, or 0.7 percent, at 5,176.93 while Germany’s DAX rose 34.26 points, or 0.6 percent, at 5,534.65. The CAC-40 in France was 26.54 points, or 0.7 percent, higher at 3,625.61.

The main point of interest for Europe’s markets will continue to be the debt problems afflicting Greece, as finance ministers from the 16 euro countries gather in the wake of last Thursday’s meeting of EU leaders. On Tuesday, the finance ministers of the full 27-nation European Union meet.

Though EU leaders gave Greece some vocal support, no money or guarantee was offered, primarily because Germany was not willing to stump up any cash as it could undermine German bonds and put further pressure on the euro.

Instead, all agreed that Greece’s progress in bringing down its budget deficit will be closely monitored and it would not be allowed to threaten the eurozone. Markets interpreted the latter comment as an implicit guarantee that eurozone policymakers will help the country if its own efforts fail.

An ensuing narrowing in spreads between German and Greek bonds — a sign that the markets think a Greek default is becoming less likely — and a more steady tone to the euro have diminished expectations that anything substantially new will emerge later.

“Risk aversion remains in vogue, though the resilience of equity markets suggests we are seeing nervousness more than outright fear and I sense the dollar’s rally may therefore be losing momentum,” said Kit Juckes, chief economist at ECU Group.

By mid afternoon London time, the euro was unchanged at $1.3610. Last week, at the height of the Greek fiscal concerns, the euro had slid to a nine-month low of $1.3533.

Besides Greece, investors have fretted about the public finances in Spain, Portugal and Ireland easy fast payday loans.

Dubai is also a growing concern amid fears that the highly indebted emirate may repay creditors less than the amounts due — it was November’s debt postponement from Dubai World, a government investment company with around $59 billion in debts, that stoked the markets’ concerns about overborrowed countries.

Dubai’s stock market fell sharply while the cost of insuring against the emirate’s debts edged back up.

“The theme of sovereign debt risk is likely to remain on investors’ agenda as fresh rumblings in Dubai make clear,” said Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

Earlier, much of Asia was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and Seoul.

However, Japanese and Australian markets fell as investors reacted to China’s move late Friday to curtail bank lending to cool off strong growth there.

Better-than-expected Japanese fourth quarter economic growth figures failed to lift Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index, which slid 78.89 points, or 0.8 percent, to close at 10,013.30. Analysts said that the monetary tightening in China — the second such move in a month — and uncertainty about the economic outlook in coming quarters weighed on sentiment.

Japan’s gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 4.6 percent in the October-December period, keeping Japan just ahead of China as the world’s No. 2 economy. Japan’s nominal GDP for the 2009 calendar year came to about $5.1 trillion, ahead of China’s $4.9 trillion.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell 16.6 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,545.5.

Wall Street is closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Elsewhere, oil prices were flat, with benchmark crude for March delivery down 1 cent to $74.12 a barrel.

____

Associated Press Writer Malcolm Foster in Tokyo contributed to this report.

European markets edge up despite Greek debt fears

In 1870, the French novelist Victor Hugo had a vision. Planting an oak tree in his yard, he predicted that by the time it matured, a “United States of Europe” would have sprung up, strengthened by a common currency that would one day make the Continent a force to be reckoned with.

One hundred and forty years later, the dream, like Hugo’s tree, is alive — if a little twisted.

Around Europe, 27 nations now fly the flag of the European Union next to their own. Sixteen have ditched the drachmas, marks and other bills that symbolized their sovereignty to embrace a single currency, the euro, lending new power to their economic and trade bloc.

All that is now being called into question, however, as European leaders struggle to prevent ruinous spending by Greece from spiraling into a wider crisis or even breaking up the euro union. How they handle this problem could either propel Europe to greater economic and political clout in the decades ahead, or downgrade it to a sideshow in a global economic theater directed by China and the United States.

For the moment, things don’t look comforting for the euro. As the troubles in Greece drove the currency ever lower against the dollar last week, Europe’s politicians did what everyone has by now come to expect: they talked about a bailout for Greece, then talked some more about the need to take “coordinated action.”

Yet details of a rescue plan were put off to a future date. No mention was made of how they would prevent Portugal, Spain or other deficit-saddled economies from falling like dominoes. And questions about who would pay for any future blowups were answered with silence.

“Now is the time when Europe needs to speak as one voice,” said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Center for European Reform in London. “The crisis should lead to political unity, but it could just as easily lead to a divided Europe.”

What explains this inertia? Even as the euro was being conceived, Germany, Europe’s sturdiest economy, was fretting about Europe’s tendency to freeze during a crisis. The German chancellor at the time, Helmut Kohl, and Otmar Issing, a German who was then the chief economist for the European Central Bank, feared that unless they set strict rules on euro membership, the new currency union could stumble.

Germany and other wealthy northern European nations might one day even find themselves transferring taxpayer money to support their poorer kin in the south, among them Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy cheap pay day loans. Britain, one of Europe’s wealthiest nations, saw the writing on the wall and never surrendered its pound.

The seeds of the current debacle were planted early. In 2003, four years after the euro’s birth, France touched off a firestorm by spending lavishly to tame a recession, declaring with a shrug that it had agreed only to “the principle of Europe.” Nations like Portugal, which made painful budget cuts to qualify for euro membership, asked why they should sacrifice if a heavyweight like France didn’t. Greece and Italy echoed similar views.

With more governments using the euro like a credit card, it was only a matter of time before investors questioned their ability repay debt. In January, when Greece tried to raise funds to pay down some of its 53 billion euro deficit, investors forced the government to pay an annual interest rate of more than 6 percent on bonds that will mature in five years.

Now governments in Spain, Portugal and Italy are also facing demands for higher rates, and fears that they might have to quit the euro club are mounting. On Friday, the French bank Société Générale became the latest to question whether a bailout of Greece simply postponed “the inevitable breakup of the euro zone.”

What this means for dreams of a more united Europe remains far from clear.

When the dust settles, Europe will probably still be a union with separate national parliaments and fiscal policies, says Thomas Mayer, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank. But he says he foresees economic policies that will be more tightly coordinated between countries, with a mechanism to resolve crises like the one brought on by Greece today. If that happens, the number of stable countries adopting the euro would probably grow, cementing Europe’s economic might as the decades pass.

But if the politicians fail, Hugo’s vision of a United States of Europe would become more clouded, and Europe’s economic weight in the world would decline.

Already, some of the small Baltic nations that had been clamoring to get into the euro club are having second thoughts. And if Britons were wary of adopting the euro before, they must surely be nursing a silent schadenfreude as they watch Germany and France scramble to clean up after Greece. Don’t expect them to change their minds any time soon.

Contemplating the Future of the European Union

BERLIN – Industrial production in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, was down 2.6 percent on the month in December, government data showed Friday — a drop propelled in part by weaker car production.

The performance compared with a modest rise of 0.7 percent in November and was much worse than the 0.6 percent increase that economists had forecast.

While production of consumer goods rose by 1.5 percent, there were big drops in other sectors, such as so-called investment goods such as machinery. The Economy Ministry said those stemmed largely from weaker production of chemical products and motor vehicles.

Car sales in Germany were boosted for much of last year by a government car-scrapping bonus program, but that expired in September.

Output in the construction sector also was down, declining by 2.6 percent.

The Economy Ministry acknowledged that industrial production lost the momentum of the previous two quarters at the end of last year, but said the quarter-on-quarter trend remained positive in the October-December period, rising 0.3 percent get a free credit report.

The impact of lower car production was “likely exacerbated by temporary plant closures during the Christmas holidays,” said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit in Munich.

“The temporary boost from the car-scrapping premium helped to stabilize domestic sales earlier in 2009 and now weighs on the overall industrial dynamic,” he added.

The government has forecast that Germany’s economy will grow by a steady but unspectacular 1.4 percent this year as the export markets that traditionally have fueled its performance pick up.

While domestic demand looks subdued and a long cold snap could weigh on construction in the first quarter, “the outlook for ongoing solid fresh supply of foreign demand still remains intact,” Koch said.

On Thursday, the Economy Ministry said that German industrial orders were down 2.3 percent on the month in December, reversing a large gain the previous month.

German industrial production down in December

SEATTLE – The needs of the poor are greater than the money available to help them, but that’s not enough to discourage Bill Gates in his work as co-chair of the world’s largest charitable foundation.

In his second annual letter, issued Monday, Gates says investment in science and technology can leverage those dollars and make more of a difference than charity and government aid alone.

In his 19-page letter, Gates says the foundation currently is backing 30 areas of innovation including online learning, teacher improvement, malaria vaccine development, HIV prevention, and genetically modified seeds.

The Seattle-based foundation focuses most of its donations on global health, agriculture development and education. Since 1994, the foundation has committed to $21.3 billion in grants. As of Sept. 30, 2009, its endowment totaled $34.17 billion.

Gates said his and his wife’s experience at Microsoft Corp. is not the only reason they are so taken with technology.

“Melinda and I see our foundation’s key role as investing in innovations that would not otherwise be funded,” he wrote. “This draws not only on our backgrounds in technology but also on the foundation’s size and ability to take a long-term view and take large risks on new approaches.”

Gates begins his letter by talking about how much fun he’s having at his new job: 2009 was the first year he worked full-time as co-chair of the foundation, after a decade of part-time work as he led Microsoft full-time.

He talks about enjoyable visits around the world to talk to scientists, politicians, teachers, farmers and people doing the work of the foundation.

“Seeing the work firsthand reminds me of how urgent the needs are as well as how challenging it is to get all the right pieces to come together,” Gates wrote. “I love my new job and feel lucky to get to focus my time on these problems.”

He talked about the way he and Melinda work as partners at the foundation, each focusing on problems that interest them and then sharing what they’ve learned and making decisions together on what the foundation should do.

Nearly seven pages of the letter focus on the foundation’s work in global health and repeatedly Gates admits the work to reach the foundation’s ambitious goals is harder than they expected no fax pay day loan.

Vaccine development is progressing, but the cost to provide those vaccines to the poor is still a problem. It’s going to be difficult to meet a six-year goal to get the retrovirus vaccine to more than half the kids who need it.

Bed nets are helping decrease malaria deaths over Africa, but “malaria is a particularly tricky disease,” Gates acknowledges. The foundation has resorted to a very expensive scattershot approach to meeting Bill and Melinda’s goal of eradicating malaria, with many researchers pursuing a lot of different ideas.

Despite having one vaccine in a Phase III trial, an effective malaria vaccine is still 8 to 15 years away, he said.

The economy rates a paragraph at the beginning and about two pages at the end of Gates’ letter. He expressed concerns that budget deficits in the richest nations leading them to cut foreign assistance. He applauds Canada and Australia for their significant efforts and chastises Italy for not doing enough. Gates commended President Barack Obama for his proposal to double international aid.

The letter ends with Gates’ explanation about why the foundation hasn’t gotten involved in working to fight climate change, despite its potential impact on the poorest nations.

He said he believes developing electricity that is cheaper than coal and emits no greenhouse gasses is the most important innovation to help fight climate change, but the foundation has not yet found a way it can play a unique role in this area. He added, however, that outside of the foundation he personally is investing in energy research.

“I am surprised that the climate debate hasn’t focused more on encouraging R&D since it is critical to getting to zero emissions,” said the man who admits to spending some of his spare time watching online MIT lectures on physics and chemistry.

Bill Gates says innovation can leverage change